The pre-election period in Nagorno-Karabakh has already revealed a few essential circumstances. This, first of all, related to the formation of the forces opposing each other and participating in the presidential struggle. It has turned out that the main struggle has been going on not between the candidates related to the authorities and the opposition but between two persons having the most essential role today – Bako Sahakyan, the head of the National Security system and deputy minister of foreign affairs Masis Mayilyan. In this context, the camps related to the opposition and the authorities are actually dispersed.

Bako Sahakyan appears as a common candidate for 4 parliamentary forces, including also 2 traditionally oppositional parties – Dashnaktsutyun and Movement 88. Since all the parties in Karabakh, except for Dashnaktsutyun, can be considered oppositional only conditionally, Sahakyan can be viewed as the successor of Arkadi Ghukasyan, the incumbent president. All the other parties, in this case, are just the supporters of the nominated candidate. Logically, in this situation, the alternative candidate – Masis Mayilyan – and his supporters are perceived as opposition. Actually, all those forces for which the idea of a common candidate is unacceptable have turned into opposition. Since in all the newly-independent states of the post-Soviet territory a candidate related to the authorities mainly depends on administrative resources, the active segments of the public and a part of the state machinery have appeared in his camp, in this case – Bako Sahakyan, and NGOs are particularly active in the camp formed around Masis Mayilyan.

In the pre-election period in Nagorno-Karabakh, a “conflict” has been formed between those keeping their status quo and those that want to change it. The ideological basis of the conflict has been expressed by the leaders of the pre-election camps. Common candidate Bako Sahakyan announced about his intention of continuing today’s course, stating that changes to the systems have already been made in the country, and there is no need for improvements. The other candidate – Masis Mayilyan – has promoted the issue of the prevalence of the law in the life of the state, announcing that fundamental changes are needed in all the areas of the country for achieving that goal.

Such a state of affairs is typical for newly-independent countries. The characteristic feature in case of Karabakh is the “etymology” of forming the camps and the internal political developments. The country has been actually divided into two groups – supporters of the current course and those who would like to change the course. In case of the non-established party system and the strict definition between the authorities and the opposition, such a situation is quite logical.

The situation and the logic are identical in case of common and alternative candidates as well. Although 3 more candidates have been participating in the presidential race apart from the above-mentioned two candidates – the head of the Karabakh Communist party Hrant Manukyan, NA deputy Armen Abgaryan, Artsakh university lecturer Vanya Avanesyan – it is obvious that the struggle will be mainly conducted between the above-mentioned two candidates. The others still should find their ideological line in the course of the electoral campaign.

Today, lots of people think that Armen Abgaryan, in case of active work, can have a serious role in the outcome of the elections, changing the logic of the struggle. At this moment, the supporters of Masis Mayilyan have been adding a certain form and tone to political conversations, making as a criticism target not so much the main candidate Bako Sahakyan than the incumbent president and the parliamentary parties supporting him. Arkadi Ghukasyan is being accused of paralyzing the free course of the elections and making his successor “be elected” at any cost.” As a substantiation of all of this, the fact of applying administrative mechanisms is being submitted, as well as the strict control over the activities of the mass media.

As for Bako Sahakyan in person, he is being accused of not being independent and not having legal basis for getting registered as a candidate. At some point the issue of Bako Sahakyan’s registration appeared in the focus of attention. On May 29, the law enforcement body of Political Initiatives applied to the Central Electoral Commission of Nagorno-Karabakh with the issue of not registering Bako Sahakyan. However, CC registered all the 5 candidates, undergoing the mass media criticism, which caused a corresponding reaction on behalf of the supporters of Sahakyan. The discussions around the elections of the Nagorno-Karabakh president gradually included also the opinions of the Armenian political circles.

Obviously, the Armenian authorities could not skip participating in today’ situations in Karabakh, and Arkadi Ghukasyan, the president of Nagorno-Karabakh talked about a part of that participation on June 5, at a brief meeting in Yerevan. He harshly criticized the destructive elements from Armenia interfering into the Karabakh internal affairs. It was nothing but the caution of the Karabakh authorities that appeared at a moment when the Armenian society seemed to get interested in Karabakh developments. It should be mentioned that Arkadi Ghukasyan, the president of Karabakh, has become the main target of criticism in Armenia.

Thus, the campaign period in Karabakh started without any immoderations. Arkadi Ghukasyan’s team makes attempts to combine the administrative resources as much as possible, at the same time, deepening the criticism towards Masis Mayilyan and his team. Correspondingly, Ghukasyan’s opposition, in the person of Masis Mayilyan, has been mainly relying on the separation of 4 parliamentary parties, as a result of which it is not excluded that Bako Sahakyan may get out of the presidential race. The process of appealing against Bako Sahakyan’s registration has gathered a part of the society around Masis Mayilyan. Significant advantages in the area of information – their sources of information and human resources – have been helping the supporters of Masis Mayilyan to create serious problems for Arkadi Ghukasyan.

Probably, the Karabakh president’s team has started to get concerned about this situation. There are more and more talks about Bako Sahakyan being supported by official Yerevan, which proves that Arkadi Ghukasyan has been looking for additional guarantees. Apparently, the opinion of the authorities of Armenia is needed, first of all, for combining the bureaucratic machinery and the parliamentary forces, and it is also obvious that, for the Armenian president, it is rather difficult to openly support a certain candidate.

Even if we don’t talk about the person of Bako Sahakyan and the intrigues around his name, imposing a certain presidential candidate for Karabakh cannot be based on Robert Kocharyan’s interest. Kocharyan that will soon leave the presidential office must abstain from such a responsible step. It is something very risky, to openly support Arkadi Ghukasyan’s plans in front of the Karabakh public that is in nihilism, and it’s not about the fact whether those plans are possible to implement, or not. The thing is, it is not quite favorable for Kocharyan to take responsibility for the possible failures in the issue of regulating the Karabakh conflict.

At this moment, there is no noticeable interference into the internal political developments in Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of Armenia. Probably, this circumstance makes Arkadi Ghukasyan take independent steps. In the activities of the president’s team, pressures on state officers could be noticed, as well as strict control over the mass media, and the blackmail of dismissing the state officers is being applied as the main mechanism.

The already-started pre-election campaign may change the electoral struggle conditions. Based on the law, each candidate is allotted by 80 free minutes on Karabakh Public TV. Surely, at this stage there will also be public debates, which can decrease the effectiveness of applying shady mechanisms. It is expected that the interest of the Armenian mass media and the society in the Karabakh elections will be increased, and in this case, probably, the influence of the Armenian public on the internal political situation of Karabakh can be noticeable.

MANVEL SARGSYAN